I Made an Offer on a House Today....Anyone Want to Critique?

I Made an Offer on a House Today....Anyone Want to Critique?

Wholesaler · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2012 · 259 posts · 147 votes

I went and saw a house in Oakland, CA today. I had found this lead via my direct mail campaign (absentee owners). The gentleman I was dealing with had inherited this house from his aunt about 3 1/2 to 4 years ago. It has been vacant the entire time and suffered damage from a fire that was started on the driveway by a disgruntled family member. In addition, he was doing a little cleanup work around the house to try and keep away the riff-raff that knows the house is vacant. In addition, I've also uploaded the pictures I took and they can be found here.

My exit strategy is to either a) wholesale or b) partner on a flip. A lot of rentals are in this area so more than likely I would end up wholesaling to a long-term investor. I’m not at the point in my investing career where I’m looking to acquire long-term holds.

Okay, now let’s take a look at my numbers:

ARV - $300k – 310k
Repairs - $80,000 (roughly – I need a lot more experience in this regard)
Fixed Costs - $40,000 (trying to be ultra-conservative)
Profit - $25,000 ($5,000 for me; $20,000 for flipper)
Offer - $157,500

He said he wanted to think over that offer as it was less than he was hoping for ($175k). It also didn't help that two people stopped by while we were outside asking if he was looking to sell. He told me he’d give me a call in a day or so to let me know what he is going to do. Finally, I asked about the possibility of seller financing since the house is free and clear but that was quickly shot down due to the man’s wife being a banker at Wells Fargo – she just doesn’t want to be a lender.

What does the BP community think? Was my offer solid? Would you have gone lower? Or higher even? Any feedback/advice is greatly appreciated.

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  • Wholesaler · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2012 · 259 posts · 147 votes
    13y

    Not sure why my link didn't work. It shows up correctly in the preview pane. Anyways, here is the link:

    https://plus.google.com/photos/103594440291904645406/albums/5868319475355940929

  • Architect · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 244 posts · 101 votes
    13y

    my first impression is that 20k is going to be too thin for a lot of investors but i'm a noob so hopefully you'll hear from someone more experienced than me. i would find a contractor or two to have a quick look at the place if possible, as that place needs a ton of work.

  • Altus, OK · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 690 votes
    13y

    Yes the deal is too thin. Something could go wrong and you'll have a money pit on your hands. In order to to get 70% ARV you need to offer $125,000 and $110,000 for 65% ARV.

  • Real Estate Investor · Saint Petersburg, FL · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 951 votes
    13y

    $20k would be way too thin of a profit for a rehabber....that said your numbers have no basis so the cost could be $20k less and then it would be a good deal again. Without real rehab numbers and an actual cost estimate there's no way to analyze a deal.

  • Property Manager · Livonia, MI · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y

    looked at the pictures.... wow, i have no words. looks like it will cave in any moment. it's a complete gut obvsouly.

    i have been to oakland. can't believe how high the ARV is.

    maybe @jscott will have a better idea of the budget ahead of you.

  • Altus, OK · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 690 votes
    13y

    I don't know if you did the mention right George for J Scott but let me see if I can give it a whirl:

    J Scott come in please over!

  • Property Manager · Livonia, MI · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    13y
    Originally posted by James Hiddle:
    I don't know if you did the mention right George for J Scott but let me see if I can give it a whirl:

    J Scott come in please over!

    i am terrible at these things. i forgot the space between the two. d'oh.

  • Rental Property Investor · Northville, MI · Member since 2013 · 264 posts · 183 votes
    13y

    Wow! I just looked at the photos; quite a wreck. My brother bought a triplex in similar shape a few years ago, and it literally had to be gutted to the studs and completely rebuilt, with new *everything*. You may find that $80k is on the low side. You really need a rehab contractor at your side to get a solid plan.

    If you're looking for your first deal, I'd encourage you to keep looking for something with a few less unknowns, where the chances of a successful outcome are higher. If you find this is a money pit and end up eating a big loss, it could turn you off from what would otherwise be a profitable investment path.

  • Wholesaler · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2012 · 259 posts · 147 votes
    13y

    Thanks Ken P. and everyone else who replied. After doing some more digging, I think the ARV could get up to about $350k, but there are still a lot of unknowns regarding the illegal addition and height of the ceilings in the basement. 7 feet is the minimum here in CA and those ceilings were right at 7 feet with bare concrete. Finally, this would be a project that I would not handle alone for my first flip. The plan was to partner with someone more experienced or wholesale it.

    Regardless, looks like this is a dead deal unless the seller can be more realistic about the work required here.

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