Thoughts on New Construction Property Purchase

[Courtney Comp]

Hello, I am thinking about purchasing a new build property in a growing suburb north of Dallas. It is still a relatively small community of 15k, but there is a lot of new development and a lot of new houses being built. The numbers would cash flow, but not as much as I am looking for so that is one uncertainty. I am thinking my maintenance/repair reserve in my model is too high. This would be my first investment property, so I like the idea of starting with a low maintenance property. Anyway, I have three main questions:

1. Generally, how do new builds generally appreciate over the short and long term in a growing area?

2. With the large supply of new builds coming on the market at least in the near term, how would that impact the value of a new build I purchased now? I am afraid the large supply would stagnate the home value. 

3. I think demand is probably an important indicator of value. Does it make sense to measure demand by calculating: (# new builds for sale)/(avg. new build sales/month)? I recently read that 6 months inventory indicates a balanced market. I don't know how accurate that metric is. Any other demand calculations that would be helpful?

Thanks in advance for any answers to the questions or any other feedback you may have.