Deal Review - help needed

[Brett Hayes]

Hi All-

Seeing a property this weekend, and have my initial numbers run out - looking for input or analysis, or what I'm missing:

-duplex, declining rural area, 30 min to growing mid sized city of 50k but only 2k residents in the town

-current owners renovated both units in 2013 with new roof, hot water heaters, electric panel boxes, all new windows & exterior doors.  nothing needs to be done assuming inspection comes back clean on foundation & major items.

Potential income: 18,600

Vacancy: (1,550) one month

Gross rental income: 17,050

Expenses:

Real estate tax: 2,350

Landlord insurance: 1,300

Repairs & Maintenance: 3,350

Utilities (water & sewer): 1,000

Lawn: 400

Maintenance man: 400 ($20 per hour, ~20 hours per year)

Total expenses: 8,800

Net Operating Income: 8,250

Debt Service: (3,313)

Cash Flow: $4,937

Tenants handle all utilities other than the water & sewer and lawn.

One thing I could be underestimating is the handyman costs - I will be 'self managing' from out of town, but this man (I know him and trust) has agreed to handle any minor items as well as move in/outs, key exchanges, etc.

Only potential weak point to me appears to be the market - definitely unlikely to be a growing market, but close enough to growing city to at least maintain?  Another issue is that the schools in the area may be forced to consolidate in the next decade or so, resulting in more of the population base/support leaving the town.

Thoughts on this deal, and/or on investing in declining rural areas in general?  Wondering if the proximity to the mid tier city helps any, or if this is too risky.  The returns look great on paper.