Help me analyze this deal (4 plex, Vegas, BRRRR, hard money)

Help me analyze this deal (4 plex, Vegas, BRRRR, hard money)

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

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Ok, so I'm helping someone run the numbers on a 4 plex in Vegas and it is in REALLY bad condition so the calculations get a little bit complex and I'd like a second pair of eyeballs to look it over and see what I might be missing. 

The Property - 4 plex, really bad condition, listed for $200,000. 

The Plan - buy the property with hard money, rehab, rent, refinance. 

Hard Money - I was told to expect to pay about 4 points, 12% interest, and 30% down. We can adjust if that information is inaccurate. 

The Rub - Purchase at $200,000, paying $60,000 down ($140,000 loan) $5,600 in points, and about $5,000 in closing costs. Put about $30,000 into the rehab (complete guess) and have it back in rent ready condition 4 months after closing, paying interest only on the hard money loan. 1 month after the completion of the rehab, all 4 units are are occupied. 1 month after all units being occupied, we refinance. The building is now worth about $275,000 and we refinance down 20% left in it (cash out 80%) and that puts $220,000 in our pocket. Enough to pay off the $140,000 hard money loan, the points and interest that came with that loan, the rehab, the original closing costs and the closing costs of the refinance.

Now we've got a $220,000 loan amortized over 30 years at 5% interest that's costing us $1,181/month but a property that's generating roughly $3,250/month in total rents or $859 in net cashflow. 

Does that look right to you? If so, that's a 44% COC return and almost a 9% CAP rate. Seems too good to be true. 

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  • Investor · ME · Member since 2020 · 40 posts · 32 votes
    6y

    I just looked up that property - there's an easy 150k-200k, if not more, needed on it. 200k is essentially the land value. If you look at what is renting for around 1k or so, that property isn't even close to being at that level. This deal feels like a stinker.

  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes
    6y

    @Account Closed I thought that might be a little under. No photos to go off of so I was just figuring in $7,500/unit. I figured that's probably enough to paint, carpet, maybe cheap counters, and possibly some systems work. (Plumming, HVAC, etc.) You think it would be closer to $30,000/unit? I do see newer quads in the same area going for $320,000-$340,000 but those are 25 years newer in all cases than our subject property. Would make sense though as to why it is priced so low if your estimate is in the ballpark of what it would actually take to get this thing back to good condition. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes
    6y

    @Brian Bagdasarian thank you for taking the time to check it out and for weighing in. I appreciate it. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes
    6y

    @Account Closed Unless this lockdown drags on for many more months, I don't think we'll see the king of depreciating home values some of us might be hoping for. In the past 6 weeks since the beginning of the national shutdown, Vegas has only seen a 3-4% downturn in values but the demand for housing is still very healthy here. (That's 3-4% with ZERO tourism dollars coming in for a solid 6 weeks along with a 20+% spike in unemployment.) Now like I said, that can all change if the strip is still closed in 6 months from now but as of this moment, I have little reason to believe we'll see a crash and burn of the housing market here. Of course, I could be wrong but for the sake of the city of our employees, I hope I am not. We'll see! 

  • Rental Property Investor · U.S.A. · Member since 2018 · 21 posts · 7 votes
    6y

    @Brad Bellstedt

    Looks about right to me. Be sure to put some of the rent into a cap x reserve (Capital Expenditures AKA "reserves") just in case something bazaar happens like a Pandemic!

  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes
    6y

    @Harry Neal

    ALWAYS, that’s true.

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