Help me analyze this deal (4 plex, Vegas, BRRRR, hard money)

[Brad Bellstedt]

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Ok, so I'm helping someone run the numbers on a 4 plex in Vegas and it is in REALLY bad condition so the calculations get a little bit complex and I'd like a second pair of eyeballs to look it over and see what I might be missing. 

The Property - 4 plex, really bad condition, listed for $200,000. 

The Plan - buy the property with hard money, rehab, rent, refinance. 

Hard Money - I was told to expect to pay about 4 points, 12% interest, and 30% down. We can adjust if that information is inaccurate. 

The Rub - Purchase at $200,000, paying $60,000 down ($140,000 loan) $5,600 in points, and about $5,000 in closing costs. Put about $30,000 into the rehab (complete guess) and have it back in rent ready condition 4 months after closing, paying interest only on the hard money loan. 1 month after the completion of the rehab, all 4 units are are occupied. 1 month after all units being occupied, we refinance. The building is now worth about $275,000 and we refinance down 20% left in it (cash out 80%) and that puts $220,000 in our pocket. Enough to pay off the $140,000 hard money loan, the points and interest that came with that loan, the rehab, the original closing costs and the closing costs of the refinance.

Now we've got a $220,000 loan amortized over 30 years at 5% interest that's costing us $1,181/month but a property that's generating roughly $3,250/month in total rents or $859 in net cashflow. 

Does that look right to you? If so, that's a 44% COC return and almost a 9% CAP rate. Seems too good to be true.