Help me analyze this deal (4 plex, Vegas, BRRRR, hard money)

[Brad Bellstedt]

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Ok, so I'm helping someone run the numbers on a 4 plex in Vegas and it is in REALLY bad condition so the calculations get a little bit complex and I'd like a second pair of eyeballs to look it over and see what I might be missing. 

The Property - 4 plex, really bad condition, listed for $200,000. 

The Plan - buy the property with hard money, rehab, rent, refinance. 

Hard Money - I was told to expect to pay about 4 points, 12% interest, and 30% down. We can adjust if that information is inaccurate. 

The Rub - Purchase at $200,000, paying $60,000 down ($140,000 loan) $5,600 in points, and about $5,000 in closing costs. Put about $30,000 into the rehab (complete guess) and have it back in rent ready condition 4 months after closing, paying interest only on the hard money loan. 1 month after the completion of the rehab, all 4 units are are occupied. 1 month after all units being occupied, we refinance. The building is now worth about $275,000 and we refinance down 20% left in it (cash out 80%) and that puts $220,000 in our pocket. Enough to pay off the $140,000 hard money loan, the points and interest that came with that loan, the rehab, the original closing costs and the closing costs of the refinance.

Now we've got a $220,000 loan amortized over 30 years at 5% interest that's costing us $1,181/month but a property that's generating roughly $3,250/month in total rents or $859 in net cashflow. 

Does that look right to you? If so, that's a 44% COC return and almost a 9% CAP rate. Seems too good to be true. 

[Brian Bagdasarian]

I just looked up that property - there's an easy 150k-200k, if not more, needed on it. 200k is essentially the land value. If you look at what is renting for around 1k or so, that property isn't even close to being at that level. This deal feels like a stinker.