Feedback for first investment property

[Eric Joy]

Hello -

I'm in contracts to purchase my first investment property in Phoenix. I wanted to run the numbers by the community to see if this deal makes sense. I'm purchasing new construction in Arizona in hopes to minimize repair costs. I know repair costs are inevitable but hoping new construction should help with this. The home is a 3 bed/2.5 bath with 1850 square feet. Here's what the deal looks like:

Purchase price - $269,000

Cash down - $70,000 

Expenses - $1275 (includes mortgage, taxes, insurance and HOA)

Estimated rent - $1700 to $1800 (based on other rentals)

Monthly income - $425 to $525

5% Vacancy Rate - $90

Total Monthly Income - $335 to $435 

Total Annual Income - $4,020 to $5,220

Return on cash - $5.74 to 7.45%

I realize I'm not figuring any repair expenses into my numbers or property management fees. I plan on renting this unit myself and managing it on my own. I have a warranty for the first year with the builder so repair costs should be minimal. I would be interested in the community's feedback on this deal. Thanks in advance.