My first deal - Would you give me insight into analysis?

[Sean Mcmahon]

Hi BP community, 

I am getting ready to put an offer in on my first investment property. I know a lot of what makes a deal good or not depends upon your goals. That aside, I wanted to share details on this deal (pure cash-flow play) and and hear your insight and wisdom if you think this deal makes sense. Since this is my first, I ran very conservative numbers (which I'll be making by decision off of but I've also included more realistic numbers). 

Details: 

• C-class property in a C-class neighborhood in SE Virginia 
• 3/1 SFR: $37K to acquire and $30K for rehab (redoing just about everything). 75K-85K ARV
• $750 a month rent, 12% vacancy (property manager tells me 8% is more likely but I want to be conservative), 10% property management, 7.5% repairs, 5% cap-ex, all utilities paid by tenant, property tax adjusted to an ARV of 90K. 
• Rehab out of pocket, 25% downpayment on house; cash out of pocket 41K (as an FYI: a BRRRR doesn't make sense on the more conservative underwriting). 

Conservative underwriting: Cash flow: $205 a month; CoC return of 5.9%, CAP rate 11.3% 

The property manager tells me I should expect $850 a month in rent with 8% vacancy. More realistic numbers: $317 a month cash flow, 9.2% CoC, 14.9% CAP rate. 

Is this a good deal even with the conservative numbers?