[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

[JJ Neerman]

G'evening, BP Fam! Please see link to a report at the end of my post i generated for a mobile home park i'm considering. I used the BRRRR calc and made some assumptions. It seems to look possible and reasonable to me. Some explanations on seemingly low expenses are as follows:

1. Property Manager is bartering rent for PM services (e.g. light maintenance and common areas, etc.)

2. Common Water is on a state-inspected/certified well

3. Sewer (liquid waste) is also on a state-inspected/certified lagoon

4. About 1/3 of the current MHs have been converted to owner financed sales to tenant, so home maintenance is on the tenant/buyer

the seller's asking price is $550k; however, the tax record shows he bought it in DEC-2018 for $350k. I have no problem letting a guy make some money for a few months, but not a killing for a couple months of very limited hands-off ownership. i think $400k is at least a fair first offer.

Additionally, i've been told that based on the current cash flow of the property, that i stand a good chance of being able buy (finance) this property primarily on the merit of the cash flow alone. If anyone has experience with this, i'd certainly invite input with how to buy based strictly on cash flow-ability. I did throw in some guesstimate numbers for presumed purchase costs, but would like to get into this property with as little out of pocket dollars as possible.

Provided my assumptions are reasonable, I'd like to make an offer, and then confirm the deal by completing MH Park due diligence to verify the assumptions...but that's for another discussion thread! ;)

Let's see if it's a swing and a miss or a possible home run!

View report

*This link comes directly from our calculators, based on information input by the member who posted.

[Derek Robinson]

@JJ Neerman

I own 8 parks and have a decent amount of experience.  I'll list out a few items and you can take or leave them!

1) Well and lagoon.  This is pretty scary to me, especially to know that they are state inspected/certified.  It's good to know you are buying a park that has the proper inspections and certifications, but it also means at any time the state can decide that your well has been tainted and needs to be shut down, or your lagoon system is leaching or causing environmental issues.  You would need to know if you have other options: Is public water and sewer available to tap into, is there enough land with the park to dig a new well or place a new lagoon system is these fail, will the county even let you upgrade or put in a new lagoon system, etc.

I have a few parks with septic tanks, none with wells.  I try to stay away from the combination of both.  For me, it's too risky to cause costly issues down the road.  If I move forward with a park with septic or well, I always make sure that there is a back up plan and I have the reserves to tackle these issues.

2) You mentioned what they paid and what you are willing to pay based on that information.  While it may be nice to know that he might have room to negotiate, don't assume he will or that you shouldn't pay a certain price just because he paid less not long ago.  I base my offers on the park solely and what they paid has no influence on my asking price, just nice to know in the back of my head that they may take less.

3)  Banks.  I would talk to multiple banks to see what you qualify for before making assumptions and going off of what other people tell you.  Your question was "loan based on income alone": When banks look a at a property for a commercial loan, they will have a commercial appraisal done (usually at your cost and usually $1,500 or more).  They will use income approach to influence their evaluation, but also pull lot rents from surrounding parks, factor in your water and sewer situation, paved vs gravel roads, condition of homes (even if you don't own them), etc.  They will also look at you personally, and each bank had different criteria for who they will finance.  Local credit unions will look at the property and your personal credit score and debt.  Larger banks will look at these things, plus your previous experience with commercial and rental property.  Most larger banks won't touch mobile home parks.  The ones that will mostly only do 1 mil or 2 mil plus.  There are very few that will do under 1 mil and lock in any kind of long term rate and term.  If you are thinking of refi later to pull out the cash you put into it, I have yet to find a bank that will do this.  They will refi to pay off a current mortgage, but not to give you personally any cash.

I feel like I'm being a downer, but just giving you my personal experience.