Chicago, IL · Member since 2011 · 18 posts · 4 votes
While researching a property that is scheduled for foreclosure auction, I noticed a large discrepancy in the valuation given to the property by the broker (exterior BPO only), the valuation from Zillow using Zillow’s Home Value Index and what the property is worth on a technical basis when utilizing the Case Shiller Index.
The decrease in value of the property vs. the prior sale price is as follows according to the three sources:
BPO: -32%
Case Shiller: - 17%
Zillow: -47%
The BPO is comparing this property to like kind properties within a small radius. Zillow tracks valuations by zip code. Case Shiller tracks valuations by City.
Should the Case Shiller Index continue to have such a big influence on the media and residential real estate market in general?
Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
15y
Its absolutely reliable. It just has little bearing on the price of a specific house. By "absolutely reliable" I mean the company has done an analysis of actual sales and generated the number. They outline their methodology on their web site. So, it reflects what has happened. Trouble is that is for entire metro areas. Doesn't tell you anything about any particular house. In that sense it's like the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000 index. It gives you an indication of the overall market direction but doesn't tell you anything about any specific stock.
SFR Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
As Jon said, the CSI is very good at what it does, but you need to understand exactly what it's doing.
It's very precise at evaluating the broad market, which is useful to anyone who deals in the broad market. I don't. I'm still small enough that I look at individual homes and neighborhoods.
Case Shiller lumps the Los Angeles and Orange County markets together, which means high-end Newport Beach properties get averaged in with bullet-riddled bungalows in South Central LA. Although it makes for interesting reading, it doesn't help me much with trying to determine the value of my own properties.
Flipper/Rehabber · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2008 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
15y
None of the three should be used to determine value of a property. The BPO may be the closet however I bought shorts after 5 lender requested BPOs. Our job is to justify our value perspective.
Real Estate Investor · Member since 2012 · 189 posts · 32 votes
13y
I've been looking at the case shiller data and wondering if I'm using it properly. The way i'm looking at it, I'm trying to determine if I can estimate like home values to match across diff periods of time.
For example, if csi in June,'88 is 74.39 and the csi in Feb,'97 is 74.40, does that mean the value of homes in the specific metro should be on average (or median value) be about the same? we would ignore month of the year since the data is seasonally adjusted and time wouldn't matter to much anyway since it's inflation adjusted as well right?
Investor · Torrance, CA · Member since 2013 · 93 posts · 12 votes
13y
Like Michael Quarles stated you shouldn't rely on anything other than your own valuation. These sites don't compare apples to apples but instead apply a market average in the general area without taking specific data into account. That's your job.
Property Manager · DeLand FL · Member since 2012 · 860 posts · 243 votes
13y
If done properly the BPO should be pretty close to dead on as they should have taken very specific data to the subject property for valuation. The key words are, if done properly.
I do BPOs all the time and most times there is enough local data available to comp things out pretty well, occasionally you get an odd ball area or house that can throw things off.
Zestimates make me laugh.
Real Estate Investor · Member since 2012 · 189 posts · 32 votes
13y
Originally posted by Angel Perez:
Like Michael Quarles stated you shouldn't rely on anything other than your own valuation. These sites don't compare apples to apples but instead apply a market average in the general area without taking specific data into account. That's your job.
i don't mean to use that period as a point of valuation or comps. I was interested to see historically how the neighborhood was in that period. For example, if I can mark a general period when home prices are comparable to the neighborhood today, I can get a better idea of context of that price range in that neighborhood for lack of data in today's 6mo past sale span. in other words it's more to get confirmed insight using today's data and a similar period's data of what price range a neighborhood is (for lack of really knowing the area).
hmmm... hope that made more sense vs. making it more confusing! :)
Real Estate Investor · Member since 2012 · 189 posts · 32 votes
13y
Originally posted by David Niles:
If done properly the BPO should be pretty close to dead on as they should have taken very specific data to the subject property for valuation. The key words are, if done properly.
I do BPOs all the time and most times there is enough local data available to comp things out pretty well, occasionally you get an odd ball area or house that can throw things off.
Zestimates make me laugh.
a good example... say an odd ball area does not have enough local/current data available to get a better picture of the neighborhood value ... again, for lack of knowing an area personally.
Specialist · Memphis, TN · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
13y
They all help you reflect current trends in an area or zip but all are equally useless for actual values. Zillow is maybe more useless than the other two but that's like saying who has the ugliest dog at an ugly dog competition :-)