Newbie Deal Analysis - What am I forgetting???

[Devin Hightower]

Just want to start out by saying that I'm not planning to actually purchase anything for 8 or 20 months depending on when I sell my current rental property. I am looking for feedback/advice on deals I'm analyzing as practice up until that point so that I hopefully have a smooth start to my real estate investing journey. 

Anyways, I decided to look in an area that I lived in for about 7 months because I have some familiarity with it, and because the market seems much easier to find potential deals in than my hometown. That said, I found a place in San Angelo, TX, and all the info with my analysis is below. Thank you in advance for your feedback!

Address: 433 Koberlin Street

Size: 4 bed 2 bath 1610 sq ft

List Price: $35,000 (Craigslist)

Rehab Needed (w/cost estimate)

Paint - $5k

Siding - $8k

Windows - $3.5k

Roof - $12k

Floors - $4k

Bathroom - $4k

Appliances - $2.5k

Furnace/AC/Water Heater - $16k

Total - $55k

Comps listed (from www.sanangelorealtors.org/mls/map):

825 Koberlin St; 4bed/1bath/1857sqft; $111,900

917 Koberlin St; 3/2/1356; $75,000

1120 Spaulding St; 2/2/1178; $105,000

Comps recently sold (Zillow)

328 Spaulding St; 3/2/1648; $135,000

527 Spaulding St; Unk/Unk/1587; $84,850

721 Spaulding St; 3/2/1403; $117,400

The owner currently lives out of state, hasn't paid taxes since 2014, and currently owes the county $8,119.65. The property is in pretty bad shape, so assuming the seller just wants his taxes paid and to get rid of the property, I believe I could negotiate him down to between $10,000 and $20,000. Assuming my fixed costs are similar to those in J. Scott's post ($17,000), I'm guessing my all in cost would be between $82k and $92k depending on how much I paid for the property. 

Based on the condition I expect the property to be in upon completion of the rehab compared to the comps, as well as the proximity to the Air Force Base, I believe the ARV would be at least $105k but likely higher. I would need to talk to some local agents to get a better idea of the ARV, but I feel as though $105k is a safe bet.

That said, I think I would be looking at somewhere  $13k and $23k in profit. Knowing that, I probably wouldn't purchase the property for more than $15k, shooting for at least $18k in profit. 

Thank all of you in advance for any feedback or advice you can give me. I really want to get a good grasp of this stuff before I start throwing real money at it.