Need help analyzing a deal

[Vincent Plant]

Here is my deal: 

Single family, 988 Sqft. 3 bed 1 bath. Purchasing it for $50K with a 20% down conventional loan. ($20K total out of pocket including closing costs).  

I figure the ARV to be $115K conservatively and $130K on the high side.

My carrying costs will be $610/month PITI + utilities.

I had the place inspected and it needs a decent amount of work (I have very little experience estimating rehab costs). 

It needs: 

• New roof/gutters/downspouts/soffit. 
• HVAC replacement.
• All plumbing in pretty much shot. 
• Kitchen rehab.
• New windows. 
• Complete interior paint. 
• Complete carpet replacement. 
• Bathroom floor and sub floor installation
• Shower replacement.
• Interior and exterior doors. 

The way I see it is if I were to sell it for $115K, subtract my $44,200 mortgage and closing costs. I'm looking at a cushion of about $50K left over. I don't anticipate the rehab being $50K so whatever I don't spend is profit. 

Am I missing something here?