HELP! first BRRRR OR FLIP project in CA

[Lilly Fang]

3 bedroom, 2 bath house, 1250 S,F with 7000 s.f. lot, in a nice town in California. listed 385K. (the neighborhood is kind of old, but good location, especially for first time buyer and family renters, most houses after flip sold at 550K-599K). I gave an offer of 415K with help the owner moving, etc. They received 19 offers and now told us you have one day to revise offer. the seller is overwhelmed and will sit down and consider offers tomorrow afternoon. My plan is buying this house at 5% down (as primary residence, got lender approval already), put 50-70K (new AC, kitchen, bathroom, floor, paint, some repair of roof), then refinance, then rent out (project rent $2500, or maybe $2900 if I turn the garage to a room), or maybe sell it.

My question is if I should increase my offer to 425k or 430k? does it really matter the 15k, or 20K? especially on that 5% down? (I am not a typical investor, well, I am first time investor, and I do consider if I make this house nice enough, maybe I can really take it to my primary residence for a while). and money is not a big issue, I do have 200K cash, just want to put as little down as possible, that's why I do 5% down. My realtor said a house similar to this was sold at 430K in Jan 2018 and flipped to be sold at 560K in June.