Help with Deal Analysis on First Investment

[Matthew John]

Hey Guys! 

I'm about 2 months into seriously being involved in the game & today I won my first auction!

Some of the issues I've faced was a lack of deals. I've been scavenging the MLS and Zillow every day for roughly 2 months, dragging my real estate agent all around the city trying to find a worthwhile investment.

I've gone to over 20 properties in this time, but today I finally (might) have a deal. 

This was a foreclosure listed on Auction.com. Whatever the highest bid was, they take a 5% premium right off the top. 

Winning Bid - 86k + 5% = $90,300

Rehab Estimates - $15,000

Closing Costs - $3000ish

Holding Costs  - $7000 ish (IF I'm required to live in it for a year, not 100% sure)

Rent - $1300/month

ARV - This is where things get tricky...My Realtor who is an investor himself and family friend thinks it'll ARV for 150k - 160k "easily"

HOWEVER, I checked Zillow and saw the Zesimate at 126k and similar homes are going for around 130k.

This home is only 1000 sq/ft. The previous owners took out a bedroom to make it 1 giant Master bedroom. 

During the rehab, I would add the 3rd bedroom back which would increase the value. Also, this home has a completely finished basement with a Kitchen, Bar, and full bathroom. My guess would be that would increase the value?

This home also has a garage that is blocked off and turned into a bar. I would reopen the garage and clean it up so cars could actually be parked in there, I figure that would add value also?

I'm curious to what you guys think about this as my first investment. 

My goal with this property would be to use the BRRRR strategy. If I have to live in it for a minimum amount of time, I will. If not, I will rent it out right away. I'm looking to Cash out - refinance and snowball this into the next property. 

I plan to do as much of the work on this property myself as possible just to gain some knowledge & experience. 

Thanks for taking the time to give me some insight!