Should I bail on this foreclosure flip!? (ie. what have I done?)

[Bradley Nelson]

Hey BP,

Disclosure:  Total newb, improperly vetted deal. 

I am currently under contract on a bank foreclosure.  The last one fell through due to title issues and so I was able to walk and get my earnest money back.  I unwisely hopped quickly into another foreclosure.  I'm trying to decide if its worth taking the hit and walking even if I lose my $5700 earnest money. 

I'm splitting the whole deal 50/50 with a cash investor. 

Price: $193K Cash

Rehab cost: $20-30K

ARV: $250-275

My ready, fire, aim strategy is catching up with me and I realize that this thing is only worth it if my rehab costs don't go above 20K. But if I suppress rehab cost, then I may not be able to get ARV up to the target price range.

Should I walk and take the hit (which is huge for me at the moment)?  Do the deal and go for it and hope for the best.... (cringe)?  Or close on the place, do a few most important things and then hopefully resell for just enough to come out with my skin on? 

I'd love any input on how to evaluate this decision. I'm already pretty clear on the fact I made a poor decision, so now I'm trying to have a thought-out strategy going forward considering the circumstance. 

Thanks

[Jon Holdman]

Even your best case number (purchase plus rehab of $213K, ARV of $275K) puts this deal at 77%. If you hit those numbers you're probably looking at a max of about $15K profit. Worst case from your numbers is $223K/$250K = 89% is break even. This is a crummy deal. An experienced rehabber with their own cash might make it work. As a newbie to rehabbing you will:

• underestimate rehab cost, so even that $30K number is likely low
• underestimate the holding time, increasing your holding costs, and
• overestimate the ARV, so even the $250K number is likely high.

This looks to me like an almost guaranteed money loser.  Sorry.