Please help me analyze this my first property :)

[Ray Ngo]

Hello BP community, after hours of education via books, podcasts, and meeting with local investors, I have built my own cashflow spreadsheet and attempted to analyze a random local property on Realtor.com to practice my analysis skills. Please let me know if you guys can find any fatal errors or deficiencies in my analysis. BIG THANK in advance! 

Realtor Link: Link to Realtor.com

Property Address: 996 E 4th St, Pomona, CA 91766 (East of Los Angeles) 

Property type: MFR (fourplex) with 2/1, 2/1, 1/1 and 1/1 (built 1938)

Property size: 2,536 sqft (living) and 6,008 (lot) 

Listed Price: $799,000.00 ($315/sqft) on market for 41 days 

Actual Rents: $4,270.00 ($1,270 + $900 + $1,050 + $1,050) to section 8 tenants 

Assumptions: 

- Strategy: House hacking. But I'd like to run the numbers in the scenario as I move out after 2 years living there to check the cashflow

- Financing: owner occupied conventional loan 

- Downpayment: 5% 

- Interest rate: 4% 

- Loan period: 30 years (fixed) 

- Vacancy of 5%, Repairs of 5%, Capex of 5%, and PM of 10%

- I assume I can get 10% discount based on how long it's been on the market (purchase price of $719,100) 

- I used Realtor.com from the link and based on purchase price of $719,100 it gives me prop tax of $749

- I relied on the listing agent data of $92 per month for home insurance 

- I relied on the listing agent data of $112.50 per month for water, $112.50 for sewage, $95 for garbage, and $60 for lawn care (assuming the tenants pay for their own electricity and gas) 

- I left PMI to be 0 since I do not know how to calculate this

Result: 

Based on assumptions and MLS listing, this property cashflow -$1,280.00 (aka, a horrible investment). Rent rate of 0.59% (far below 1% rule), and OPEX of 44.7% (pretty close to Brandon Turner 50% rule).

Questions: 

1. When screening properties, what is the quickest way to estimate PMI for low downpayment (5-10%)?

2. Do you guys rely on Realtor.com to estimate annual prop. tax based on purchase price? 

3. Do you guys use selling agent Pro Forma rent ($5,000) or actual rent ($4,270) to run the numbers? I do not know why one of 2/1 unit has rent for $1,270 while the other is only $900. 

4. Do you aim for $100 per door or $400 (for this fourplex specifically) of cashflow as a minimum before you even bother to look at the property in person? 

5. Do you trust and use the listing agent data on home insurance of $92 a month for your calculation? 

6. Did I miss anything important or critical that made my analysis inadequate? 

Thanks guys!

Excel:

[Mitch Fernandez]

Let me state that I  am NOT yet an investor, but have spent time really learning the analysis process. Here is what I can offer:

"- I used Realtor.com from the link and based on purchase price of $719,100 it gives me prop tax of $749"

Taxes on this property in 2017 and 2016 were $5,601. Property taxes are public record, so you can use previous years paid and estimate a slight increase. Netronline is your friend for public records by state and county. 

For PMI, I figure 1% of the mortgage principal /12 to find your monthly PMI. This is conservative for me, but for the principal amount you're looking to finance this is about right.

An interest rate of 4% is low, especially for that low of a down payment. You're likely closer to 5.4 and paying some points. 

I figure future maintenance/repairs at 5%. That for me would include capital expenditures. What capex would you have thats not a maintenance or repair?

I would run the actual rent numbers, again as a conservative analysis. If you find yourself trying to find places to fudge the numbers and make the deal work, it's probably not a good deal. 

Don't forget closing costs as part of your cash needed to purchase. I figure 4%. 

 For me, more important than the cash on cash return is the debt coverage. I look for at least 1.25. This means that your cash flow is 25% more than your debt service(mortgage). If you are much lower than that, you run the risk of going upside down very easily if any of your expenses increase. 

My analysis puts this property at $(2,317.14) monthly cash flow and a debt coverage of .53. So yes, this is a horrible investment. You can tell this right off the bat before punching in all of the numbers. The amount of rental income vs. the property value is crazy. 

Hope at least some of this is helpful.