34% COC return & 12% CAP - Too good to be true?

[Tim Schroeder]

This Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge STR looks too good to believe. Am I missing something? Is my math wrong? Or is this an awesome deal? Here are the rough numbers:

The property is a 4BR cabin at the edge of the Great Smoky Mountains - a popular tourist vacation destination in Tennessee. Property values are rising around 6% a year in this area, which is friendly to STR's with no regulation, no plans for it, and a well-established history of private STR's. I will self-manage it which will be a PITA but worth it for the money.

Purchase price is $430k. (Yes, I know that's a LOT of money for a cabin in Tennessee)

Documented annual revenue (VRBO) last year of $79k

Initial investment: 86k down pmt + $4k closing + $5k rehab (it's already turnkey) = $95k (all furniture, appliances, linens, etc included)

Annual expenses of $27k plus $20k annual mortgage pmts = $32k net profit per year. (This assumes 5% cap-ex, 5% repairs, 3% AirBNB/VRBO fees, plus typical taxes, insurance, and utilities). 

That's a COC of 34% and a CAP rate of 12%!!!

Here's a screenshot of the spreadsheet I use for calculations:

You can download the spreadsheet here:  

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5kvfcpb6p4bevut/rental%2...

So, please tell me what am I missing, or should I jump on this?