Is this a good deal? Possible Brrrrr deal!

[Adam Ramsey]

I might buy a SFH for $60,000. I plan on making a cash offer and then doing the Brrrr strategy.

Purchase: $60,000

Rehab: $5,000-10,000

ARV: $90-100,000

Rent Price: $1,000

Being conservative I'm planning on ARV of $90,000 and repairs of $10k.

Refinance at 70% ARV: $63,000

Payment: $319 @ 4.5%

Taxes: $158/Month

Insurance: $75/Month

Vacancy 10%: $100

Maintenance/Cap X 10%: $100

Management 10%: $100

Cashflow: $148/month

I would borrow about half of the money initially from family and paying back after refinance (rate tbd) and pay the rest out of pocket. I have the my side of the cash handy or could borrow from a heloc at 1.9%. After everything I should have approximately $10,000 left in after cash out refi (factoring a little extra for closing costs and unknowns). Cash on cash return would be 17.7% (cashflow x 12 divided by $10,000) - think I did this right. I'm uncertain on the 2% and other rules.

The cash flow is not huge but a good return plus the equity. By looking at numbers I think it will be closer to $100,000 ARV. If it's that, my payment would be $355 @ $70k financed and approximately $100 cashflow but with little to no money out of pocket after refi. I'm trying to be conservative with all numbers. I'm expecting more of a 5% vacancy rate, plan on managing myself which would add $150 a month to cashflow. Repairs should be mostly cosmetic (flooring and painting) and hopefully closer to the $5K number.

Would love to hear your thoughts and whether my numbers look correct just on an analyzation standpoint.