Sell flip at a loss or turn it into a rental?

[TD Wolf]

Ok, so there's a whole back story (and tons of lessons learned--see more on that below) wrapped up in this question, but it  essentially boils down to this:

I started a flip in April with a hard-money loan. It started out well but it was clear from pretty early on that the builder was going to be way behind the initial schedule. Fast forward to August and the place was finally ready to list (even though the contractor bailed before it was over I was protected because the renovation money was held in escrow and only dispersed upon completion of the different phases of work). 

I've dropped the price from $220k down to $180k over the last three months. If I sell it for the current asking price I'll break even. So, now it's November and snow will start falling and there will be even fewer buyers in that area (the prime market to sell is April to August) so I'm facing a dilemma: do I rent the place out and start getting a steady cash flow or do I hold on until spring and hope to sell it for enough to break even or earn a little profit?

More facts on the deal:

• It's located in Maine near lakes and a ski mountain (35 mins from Portland), but houses tend to sit on the market there for a while due to a small pool of buyers.
• I have a candidate lined up to rent the place at $1450/mo plus utilities with good income, credit, etc.
• Only expenses are taxes ($2200/year) and insurance ($1600/year) as I now own it outright 
• If I put it on a year lease (which is what renters want in this area) I'll be back in this position in a year from now and could extend the lease or sell it.
• The house was extensively renovated so this is the only time it will ever be "new." 
• I don't necessarily "need" the cash that's tied up in it but that is a big chunk of money I could potentially invest elsewhere (but without a known rate of return like I'd get on this place).
• The property is 2 hours from where I live so I need to find a property manager.

Interested in any and all perspectives on this and happy to answer additional questions if they help paint the picture.

[Daniel Klein]

@TD Wolf Ok, so you have $175,000 into the property (this is your equity). Your IRR on the rent (and I don't know the property taxes, maintenance etc, but lets say its 35% of the rents. So.

$1,450*.65 = $942.50 a month Net

$942.50X12 = $11,310 per year NET Operating income (NOI

IRR = NOI/Cash (equity)+ appreciation

$11,310/$175,000= .0646 = 6.46% Rate of Return Pre Tax

You may get 2-3% a year in appreciation ( $4,000) and could depreciate the value over 27.5 years)  $6,545 per year deduction. Based on your tax rate, that might be worth $2,160 today (whatever your tax rate is * deduction.

So true return is $11,310 Cash, $4,000 in appreciation, and $2,160 in tax savings = $17,470 So 9.98% a year return....

Or, you Sell at $175,000 and make $0. You take that $175,000 and you do another flip which you sell in a year for $220,000.

After sales commissions etc, you may net $204,600 on your $175,000 investment for a gain of $29,600. That NOI is $16,9% and when you sell in a year, there is no "appreciation" as its already baked into the sales price, and no depreciation, as you have no holdings. So if you can find a flip, where you can spend $175,000 and sell for $206,950 ($175,000 + $17,470)/.93 you will break even. (the .93 is the % you would net after escrow, sales commissions etc). So find something where you can sell for more than $204,000 and the better solution would be to sell current property, and make the money up on the next flip.