Could this be a good deal for a BRRRR?

[Tom Weyer]

There are a lot of big assumptions here because I have to do a lot more due diligence, but since I am brand new to REI I wanted to get your opinion. Is this realistic for Long Island? It's also been on Zillow for a year, so I have to be missing something.

Based just on Zillow (I know... I'll talk to my realtor/contractor, etc. and actually do the due diligence) the property is listed for $230,000.  It is a 3-family and similar homes sold for around 300-400k (big range, I know).  

So if I assume I can get it for 220k and the ARV is assumed to be 350k, it might be a good deal.

This is the part where I have to go see it with my contractor, but if it really only needs around $25-30k of work, I could get a mortgage of $176k and a down payment of $85k (20%) interest of say 5.5% (I would also need a private loan because I really only have $4,000 to put into this). I would get a private lender (hopefully) to lend me around 95K (to cover the down payment and the vacancy costs while I fix up the place (I assume 3 months of work)... maybe a 24 month loan if possible). I would positive cash flow the first year (because of the cash that covered that vacancy cost) and the second year during the refinance (total of around  $7,500 cash flow for the 2 years). 

The refinance would not give me enough equity assuming a 25% required LTV, but it would only be $8,450 out of pocket after paying the 1st mortgage and the private loan (the cash flow from the 1st 2 years covers most of that... I just have to save up $1,000 that year... I can do that).

After that the cash flow is in the $12,000 range per year (in the 100%s CoC return in my calcs). I was conservative with the rent estimate I think, too ($1,550 per month each unit). There are 2 garages, so I could likely get a bit more each month for that.

OPEX assumptions: 

Property Taxes      $11,000 (pretty accurate... maybe a tad conservative)

Insurance      $150/month (I don't know if this is accurate, but other analyses I've seen are close to this)

Repairs & Maintenance 8% (I assume a MFH need a bit more of maintenance than a SFH, so this could be a good est.)

Utilities       Paid by tenant

CAPEX 8%

Property Management     11%