Calculating Cash Flow - Am I missing something?

[Ben Hudnall]

Hey all, first real post here.

I have been looking at units with my broker and trying to analyse every property I can get specs on. The majority of them look similar to the following:

Number of doors: 2
Total Rent per month $2,400 (current rent is at 950$ per side, but I believe the market is at 1200 a month for 2br 1.5b)
Purchase price: $199,000
Mortgage Payment (FHA @ 4.5%): $1,125
Taxes (yearly): $3322
Insurance: $1200
Water/sewer: $100
Garbage: $15

Now I am calculating the following based on input I have found around on BP and elsewhere:
Vacancy - 5% a month: $120
Repairs - 8% a month: $192
CapEX - 5% a month: $120
Prop Mgmt 10% a month: $240

Now if we add this all up, I'm looking at a cash flow of 96.12$ a month total.

Am I overestimating vac/repairs/capex etc? Am I underestimating something here? If I make a bad call and say rents are actually at 1100$, I would actually be sitting on a negative cash flow of -47.88$. 

Is this a get up and walk away type of deal for you? (Note: for an FHA at 3.5% down payment this is a COCR of 16.56%)