Help Analyzing Multi-Family

[Patrick Murphy]

I'm a complete newbie, so I'm sure there are about 5-10 mistakes in my analysis so far.

I'm learning how to analyze using Rental Property and BRRRR Calculators. I found a 6-unit--1BR 1BA each about 5 blocks away from the university, asking price $150,000. Online sites estimate current value at $180,000 (its even being appraised by the county tax assessor at $160,000). The listing admits that there is a lot of deferred maintenance so some repairs will be needed. However, 5 of the 6 units are leased. Gross rent is $3350. Owner pays utilities (so I factor about $600/month for that for everything).

Having not looked at the inside of the property yet, although I have driven by, what would be a reasonable estimate for "deferred maintenance" costs?  The fact that it has 5 tenants makes me believe that its not *terrible*.  There were a lot of hailstorms in the area last year, so I assume it may need a new roof.

If I BRRR--offer $125,000 and put in $50,000 in repairs, spruce up the outside, etc., I wonder if I could force appreciation to $200,000. At those numbers (perhaps dropping rent when the tenants lease terms expires, switching to tenant pays utilities), post-refi cash flow appears to be over $500/month.

This seems to good to be true, please help me see what is wrong with my analysis.