Experienced with BRRRR but analyzing first flip

[James Masotti]

Submitted an offer yesterday on what will be my partner's and my first flip. There are multiple offers and so the listing agent is calling for last and final by 5pm tomorrow. Looking for some thoughts from the more experienced flipper community. @Caleb Rigby, @Matt Faircloth, @Doug W.,@Andrew Syrios, @Rick C.,@Troy Sheets, J Scott

List price - $34,900

Offer price $45,525

Renovation budget - $80,000

6 Months of Holding Costs and Realtor Fees - $17,504

ARV - $160,000-$170,000

Expected profit - $16,600-$25,000

I'm expecting the renovation to last 10 weeks, but hoping it will be closer to 8 if we can get the inspector to cooperate with us and we have good weather. Then again...that's not usually what happens so...10 weeks it is. 

For the comps that are within 2 blocks of and have sold in the last 12 months here are the specs. 

Bed	Bath	Sqft	Sale Price	Price per sqft	Days on Market
3	1.1	1425	$147,800	$104	103
3	1.1	1550	$150,000	$97	58
3	1.1	1375	$155,000	$113	4
3	1.1	1600	$158,000	$99	25
3	2.1	2175	$170,000	$78	205
3	1.1	1475	$174,153	$118	8
3	1.1	1500	$180,000	$120	9
3	3.1	1550	$193,000	$125	8

The higher price per square foot comps are flips compared to simply nicer market priced houses (ie non-distressed sales). 

ARV value assumes the lower end of the price per square foot at $113, with upside to $120.

Is there anything significant that I am missing from having looked at my analysis? 

Those interested can see pictures here - https://tinyurl.com/yb8ws4ln

I appreciate any thoughts and feedback that anyone is able to provide

[Matt Faircloth]

Hey James, 

At s glance it sounds like a great deal.  Congrats.  Your comps look solid as lo g as they are in the same town as your flip and within a tight radius, 1  to 2 miles or so.  Also they need to have sold in the last 180 days.  Is the block the house is on solid?  Sometimes houses priced this low can be on blocks with other boarded up homes, which will be a major detriment to a resale.

What I would want to know more about is your renovation budget.  80k is a lot per square foot so I'm assuming you are leaving no stone unturned.   Do you have a bid from a reputable GC yet?  Are there any contingencies baked into your numbers?

Also curious to hear what the others have to say.

Matt