BRRRR Confusion - Cash flow doesn't make sense

[Mike McCarthy]

So, having one BRRRR under my belt, I'm ready to jump into the next one. Have my eye on a property which at first glance looks good, but the numbers just aren't making sense to me.

Purchase price: $125K  (aggressive based on list price)

ARV: $175K

Rent: $1100/mo

Assuming 25% down payment for a refi, at say 4%

PITI: $866/mo

CAPEX, Maintenance, Vacancies: $286/mo

Monthly Cashflow: -$52  No good.

So I start rejiggering the numbers. Say I can get it for $100K. The cash flow remains the same! If I can get the ARV up to $200K, the cash flow remains the same. Of course, this makes sense, since the PITI and rent stays the same.

But now I'm confused. The purchase price doesn't really matter, it's a matter of ARV vs. rent. Right? Should I be analyzing this differently? Or are the numbers really that bad?