Analyzing a deal in TN

[Chris Shelton]

Hello all, I am currently looking for my first deal, and I have come upon the following. I was hoping you guys could give me some insight into my analysis.

The Purchase

Single family house, 1650 sqft, .94 acre lot. Bank owned foreclosure.

Asking $55,000, $10,000 Down payment, $3000 closing, $600 inspection

Rehab = estimated at $10,000

Total purchase out of pocket $13,600 + $10,000 rehab = $23600

$45,000 mortgage/$250 mo 30 year fixed at 4.25%

Total Cost = $68,000

My projected ARV is about $95,000

I am in it for 71% of my projected ARV

If my calculations are correct, I should be able to refinance and pull out $27,000 in capitol if I hit my target ARV, correct?

Rental

Anticipated rent = $1000 mo.

Mortgage = $250 mo

Tax= $50 mo

Insurance = $100 mo

Vacancy 5% = $50 mo

Repair & Cap Ex = $150 mo.

No other anticipated expense

Total monthly expense is $600

Should cash flow at $400 mo./$4800 yr. after expenses

My annual return percent is right at 20%

Again, this is my first one, I designed a tool in Excel and checked it against the BP tools, but am I doing this the right/smart way?

Also, since this is a bank owned foreclosure, will they typically have any negotiating room below the asking price?

Thank you for any thought or suggestions you all may be able to provide.