Help me analyze my first BRRRR deal!

[Kayla V.]

Hi all- I think I've found a house that will make a good BRRRR. Do you agree?

Property: SFH, 3 bed/1.5 bath

Listed: $59,900 (MLS, part of an estate)

Offer: $50,000 cash

Rehab: $25,000 

ARV: $110,000

Rent: $1200

Vacancy: 8% ($1152/year)

Taxes: $1596/year (assessor's website)

Insurance: $1200/year (estimate)

Capex: 10% ($1440/year)

Repairs: 5% ($720/year)

Property Manager: 10% plus 50% of one month's rent ($2040/year)

Assume tenant pays all utilities.

Refinance after 6 months at 70% LTV ($77K), 5%, 30 years: $415/month

Cash Flow $106/month after the refinance with no money left in the deal and $33K in equity. What am I missing?