First BRRR - Could use any additional analyzing insight

[Bart Modzelewski]

Hello BP, I have a property or two picked out that interested in BRRRing but before jumping in, I would like to run the numbers by you to see if there is anything I am missing. The numbers have been pulled from MLS and standard online mortgage calculators.

I have not included either of the closing costs. How much would that effect all of the numbers? What number should I use for standard closing costs (initial purchase and refi)?

Original Purchase Price - $66,400
Down Payment (20%) - $13,280
Remainder of Loan - $53,120

Initial Monthly Payment - Approx. $408

Renovation Cost - $30,000

Cash out of Pocket (down payment + renovation cost) - $43,280

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Need to Refinance $96,400 (remainder of the loan + cash out of pocket)

ARV would need to be $137,700 (since %70 of this amount is the $96,400 I need to pull back out)

After Refinance New Payment - $604

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Now as for cash flow...

Expenses:

Mortgage (includes P&I, taxes, insurance) - $604

Property Management 10% (even thought this will be self managed) - $60

Vacancy (10%) - $60

Repairs (10%) - $60

Cap Ex - $100

TOTAL Expenses - $884

EXPECTED average rent for the area - $1300

Cash flow/month - $416

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With your expertise, how does everything look? 

Would the BRRRR work?

Does the cash flow look good?

Do you have any additional information that I may be overlooking?

Thank you in advance!