Rental Property Investment near a big Casino construction project

[Christopher Greci]

My first investment, never meant to be an investment. I bought a condo, and 12 months later had to move across the country for a job. I kept the condo as an investment. There is a new Casino (Wynn Casino, Boston) being constructed next door (yes, adjacent). My property is cash flow neutral, the tax benefit, and loan paydown is benefiting me more than cash actually.

It's the final "way to gain" (through apprechiation) which I'm thrown off by, and can't decide if I have a good investment or not!

I'm assuming 4% a year apprechiation for my area, but with this giant casino going up next door (only one in Boston area, concert venue as well, etc.) I'm confused. The city includes plans (commitments) to build new firestation, police station, and green space in my area with the casino revenue. It's also dropping in crime, and there is a brand new shopping mall, movie theatre, and subway stop about a mile away. I don't expect any significant traffic or noise issues above the current norm in the area.

I have all my numbers calculated, but it still feels like fuzzy logic to me with this casino so close by. I don't have much equity in the place (about 83% of the value is carried by the loan). Re-financing would help the cash flow go slightly positive, but it's still too new to me for that to make sense (e.g. re-finance closing fees).

It's a loft condo, 780 sq. feet, and totally open space with 14 foot ceilings and a really nice feel to it (it's in a 2006 re-modeled old Boston chocolate factory). Tons of character. However, I'm expecting some special assessments in the next few years because of water ingress. This mainly affects the other South and East sides of the building, but it would be a community shared cost repair, and certainly make my monthly cash flow negative if I dealt with the situation passively (not re-financed into the home). Probably a 1-2 million dollar price tag across all 68 units. with my sq. footage I'd be responsible for about 1% of that cost.

There would be some reasonable opportunity to turn it into an official 1-bedroom by framing up some walls (or a 1.5 bed), but I'm not positive I want to undertake this remotely from California. I don't expect to have any significant capital expenses, aside from a dishwasher or dryer.

I'm looking for some advise. I also feel like there are questions with with valuable answers that I'm not asking yet. I just can't decide on my 5 year plan for this property with so many variables. Again, it was originally planned to be my home, not a rental. It sucks that it's cash flow neutral, but at the same time, risk is fairly low, and apprechiation potential seems huge!

Anything I'm missing here? Definitely still learning.