Deal analysis help for multifamily

[John Valence]

Hi Everyone,

Need to pick your collective brains on a residential multifamily deal I'm looking at.

The cash flow is very low, but the market is pretty competitive so I'm just undecided between

jumping the gun and actually owning my first multifamily vs waiting for a favorable market/next deal.

I'm going to purchase using FHA loan

Here are the numbers:

Purchase Price : $290000

Annual Taxes : $3286

Annual Insurance : (estimate) $1800

Down payment : 3.5% ($10150)

Interest Rate : 3.625%

PMI : 0.85%

Closing Costs : $6800

Upfront repairs : (estimate) $10000

Monthly rent : $2800

I'm usually very conservative, so use 8%, 5%, 5% and 10% for Vacancy, Repairs, Capex and Property Management respectively.

My calculations gave a meager cash flow of $114 a month. I'm still undecided because its one of the few deals on multifamily in the market. In this market rents have only been going up. The rents did dip for a years during the 2008 recession.

How soon can I refi into a conventional?

Thanks everyone,

John