Newb Analysis and running numbers

[John Powell]

I've been on bigger-pockets from time to time to time and  I'm wondering about running numbers.....

I was looking at a home in the KC area and I'm wondering about what I should or should not include.

I'm calculating an older property that's been completely renovated, and upfront I plan to have $5,000 in reserves just in case. So,

I calculate annual repairs at 10% or the square footage of the property.

I calculate cap-ex at 10% percent without running all the numbers on fixes. This amounts to about a grand a year.

Average Vacancy, after running a high/middle/low number and averaging, is at 10%.

I've also included property mgt, taxes, and insurance after receiving a quote. There is no HOA.

Are there any other numbers I'm not considering? It's not possible to include all disastrous events, however, are there other routine expenses I should look for? IS there a more effective way to estimate cap-ex? I'm just using a percentage to cover costs down the road. Also, what do people think of 40 year loans to increase cash flow? 

Any information is appreciated! Thanks!