Cedar Rapids / Marion Iowa deal analysis. Need opinions / advice

[Dan Jones]

I'm looking to make my 2nd deal and I really stumbled into my first deal so I'm pretty much a newbie.  That said I've been trying to analyze a deal in the Marion / Cedar Rapids area.  The property is on 3rd Ave in Marion, right across the street from a school.  My numbers are telling me its a good deal (19% cash-on-cash, 300$ cash flow) if I can get it for a good price below the asking.  The big question though and what I need help with is... will it rent for 1250$ which is what all my math hinges around.  If it goes for 1100$ its meh, 950$ and it starts stinking.  The street doesn't have any other 4 beds, 2(ish) baths, with a 2 car garage.  There are plenty of 3 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garages around that looks to be in the 1000$ rental income range.  I should mention that part of my analysis includes putting down 25,000$ in repairs/improvements (most from building a detached 2 car garage) with a home equity line of credit.

Basically I'm looking for advice on if other investors in the area think of this is a good deal or a stinker?  Would a 4 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage rent for 1250$ in the area?  Would improving the house that much make it too good for the neighborhood?  I was envisioning the rental tenants being a small family with kids that wants to live in a nice place close to school and downtown Marion.  However, I recently talked to a real estate agent about the location and I got a bunch of ice water poured over over my idea.  She wasn't a rental expert, more of a buy and sell realtor.  Anyways, looking to get some more expert advice.

Please let me know too if I need to provide more detail too.  I'm not sure how much detail to post on BP.

[Austin Davis]

@Dan Jones

I wont be able to help you for rents in that area, but would say to not put all your eggs in one basket with the rents.  Make sure to have some exit strategies in place for if it doesn't work out they way that you hope (It doesn't a lot of the time).  Make sure that you are buying a deal below market value,  so you sell it if you needed.  Check with some property management companies to get a conservative rent that they could get for it.  Just run your numbers on the conservative side and don't bring emotion into the deal.  If it works, great!  If it doesn't, pass.