Are my numbers reasonable?

[Laniece Miller]

So I only own my own home and are starting to seriously look at buying a rental. I was doing some looking at what was for rent in my neighbourhood. and a few streets over is a property where the asking rent is $300-400 over market rent in the area. My initial thought was to contact the owner and asking if they wanted to sell, especially as it appears to have been listed for rent for about four months. However, my first stab at the numbers don't make it sound reasonable to even pursue contacting the owner, though there are several rentals in the community. Based off my house which is in the same HOA my rough estimates are:

ARV is about $130k

Rent would be in the $1300-1350 range

taxes and insurance run about $475

maintenance would be about $130 (10%)

cap ex $130 (10%, property is about 40 yrs old, most exterior work is covered under HOA)

management $130 (10%, planning on the possibility to hand it over to a manager)

vacancy $130

HOA is about $175

This totals costs to be about $1150-1200, which doesn't leave room for a mortgage.  

How far off base am I?