Crunched some #s for my first property

[Kevin R.]

I'm looking to buy my first-ever property, and I found a triplex in Philadelphia that I really like. I crunched some numbers (http://bit.ly/1Rhx4zW) using a modified template from @J Scott. The property is currently listed at $420,000. Based on my number crunching, I'm thinking that an offer of $370,000 with a 3% seller assist would work for me, which would be about 14.5% lower than what it's currently listed for. Does that sound like a somewhat reasonable offer? Any feedback that the good people of BP could give would be greatly, greatly appreciated.

Here are some assumptions I made:

• The three really important numbers are highlighted in blue at the bottom: net operating income (NOI), total cash flow, and total return.
• I'm treating this property as an expense rather than an investment (since I'll be living there), so I'm not overly concerned about obtaining positive cash flow while I live there.
• The one number that's still in question is the insurance - Liberty Mutual quoted me $3,500/year, which seems incredibly high to me. I'm going to shop around to see if I can find something better. If I can get that figure down to $1,500-$2,500, my cash flow would look a lot better.
• Until I actually take a look at the property, I'm assuming minimal up-front improvement costs ($2,000).

Also, I had a miscellaneous question - I did a bit of research and found that it's an estate sale. I found the obituary of the gentleman who owned the property and saw that the names of his surviving family members were listed. Do you think it would be inappropriate to reach out directly to a family member to try to get a number out of them that they'd feel comfortable selling at? I'd imagine that they'd want the property off their hands - one less thing for them to worry about.

Thank you, BP!