How much can I trust the county tax appraisal?

[Zach Vaught]

Hey Guys,

I'm really new to the game, so i'm trying to figure some stuff out. Help me out! 

I found a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1680 sq ft. double wide trailer on .4 acres for sale for $31,500. The tax office had appraised it this past year at $73,130 and the zillow zestimate shows to be $89k. 

The property is is pretty good condition. The only thing i would have to do (as far as i know at this point) would be fresh paint and  carpet.

When i plug all of this information into the rental calculator here online using 20% down, $7000 (High Estimate) in repair costs, average closing costs, an after repair value of $65k (in my mind a conservative estimate considering it appraises for $73k), and ultimately renting it out for $700 a month, all my numbers look tremendous. I have all my expenses set at averages for the area and have the tenant paying water and electricity. 

I haven't actually went to see the property yet, but based upon these numbers i'm getting a 22% ROI, and $285 of cashflow per month with total cash needed at signing of $15,300. The real kicker is the total initial equity coming in at $39,800!

Now, all of these numbers don't mean jack if the property isn't worth what the tax office says its worth. What do you guys think? Let me know your response.

Thanks!