FHA loan vs. cash refi 20% down conventional loan analysis

[Roy C.]

I have been analyzing FHA and conventional loan, and I just want to double check with you guys on my thought process.

I created a hypothetical property with following info:

2nd property to own- Duplex

Purchase price: 200k 

Monthly rent: $1000/unit

Property Tax: $3000/year

All the mortgages are 30 years long with buy/hold strategy

First let's check out FHA loan option with 5% down. According my calculation,

P&I: $963.00

MMI: $206.00

Total monthly payment on mortgage: $1469.00 

One time up front MIP: $3325.00

Down payment: $10k

Closing fee + title fee: $10k 

Total initial capital required not including improvement: $23k

After factoring in PM(15%), occupancy rate(95%), maintenance(10%) cash flow turns out to be $-440/month. 

Next with a conventional loan with 20%down 30 yrs:

P&I: $810.00

Down payment: $40k

Closing fee + title fee: $10k

Total initial capital required not including improvement: $50k

After factoring in PM(15%), occupancy rate(95%), maintenance(10%) cash flow turns out to be $150/month. 

Now let's take another step and assume after one year of conventional loan, the property will cash out refinance:

new loan: $228k ( initial 200k +.7(40k) cash out refi)

new P&I: $924

Closing fee for refi: $6840

After factoring in PM(15%), occupancy rate(95%), maintenance(10%) new cash flow turns out to be $33/month  and cash out of 28k. 

Now here are my questions:

1. Does this analysis look remotely close to how you usually analyze a deal? I know there is a lot of approximation and estimation involved, but does this look reasonable?

2. I know cash flow is the king, and in this case, conventional loan outweigh FHA by far. However with conventional loan, your initial capital is multiples of the initial capital of FHA loan. Would you recommend getting a conventional loan for a long term?

3. Does maintenance of 10% including CapEx sound reasonable or do i need to increase the %?

4. I currently do not have two years of working experience, but I got a job in the same field I have been studying in college. I know I can be qualify for FHA loan, but do I qualify for a conventional loan with just one year of tax return?

Thanks!