First Potential Investment Needs Seasoned REI Review

[Juan Silva]

I'm considering putting an offer on a NOO duplex in Pierce County, WA, and since this is my first time jumping into the deep end of the pool :-), I'd appreciate a review/spot check from this seasoned BP community to make sure I'm not missing anything. Without further ado, here's the annual financials:

1. Offer Price: $199K

2. Financing & Mortgage: 25% down, 30yr Fixed @ 4.625% = -$9194

3. Scenario 1 - Based on Current Below Market Rents:

a. Total Expenses: -$6152

i. Property Tax: -$2652

ii. Insurance: -$890

iii. Maint & Repairs @10%: -$2310

iv. Other Admin: -$300

v. Self PM: $0

b. Gross Income: $21175

i. Rental Income: $23100

ii. Vacancy @ 8.3%: -$1925

c. NOI & Cap Rate: $15023 @ 7.56%

d. CF: $5829

e. CCR: 9.77%

4. Scenario 2 - Based on Increasing Rents To Market Rate:

a. Total Expenses: -$6482

i. Property Tax: -$2652

ii. Insurance: -$890

iii. Maint & Repairs @10%: -$2640

iv. Other Admin: -$300

v. Self PM: $0

b. Gross Income: $21175

i. Rental Income: $26400

ii. Vacancy @ 8.3%: -$2200

c. NOI & Cap Rate: $17718 @ 8.92%

d. CF: $8524

e. CCR: 14.29%

Scenario 1 would be the current reality with Scenario 2 being the upside potential. Am I missing anything from these numbers? Does this read as a good investment on paper?

Thanks for any and all feedback.