Buy and Hold Deal Analysis in Texas

[Geoffrey Jones]

I have under contract to purchase 2 properties in TX. 

Here are the two properties

21530 Greengate Spring TX 77388
ARV: 200000
Price: 140000
Repairs: None
Rent: 1800

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/21530-Greengate-...

&

1211 Westgreen Blvd Katy TX 7745
ARV: 210000
Price: 135000
Repairs 15000 to make rent ready. Pure cosmetic work.
Rent 2000

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1211-Westgreen-B...

Both look like they have an anticipated rent roll of about $2000 month each

I have a hard money lender ready to do the deal and my end goal is to refinance with a portfolio lender in the area at 80% LTV immediatly. This will help me recoup most of my costs of acquiring the properties.

Hard Money is requiring
3% Origination Fee
2000 in other fees
400 upfront for appraisals

I have comps that I have pulled from the MLS for both and it looks solid but again I want to verify everything. I have the cash for any repairs needed if I need to make fixes before receiving my draws.

Please let me know if you see any pitfalls in this deals. Please let me know if the areas are solid locations as I believe they are. Also Is there anything I should be careful of for any one experienced in these areas?

[Paul Ewing]

My first thought is that the ARV are highly overinflated especially for the Spring house. Do you have any real comps to support the ARV numbers? Just looking a the Zillow neighborhood I don't see much even getting close to $200k in value. I know Zillow estimates aren't worth much, but if the whole neighborhood is much lower than in claimed then I think the trend needs a hard look. Plus I didn't see any listings over $179k so I would really want three to five real comps from sold properties to support those estimates. taxes at the current appraised value of $148k for Spring are $3665 and for the Katy at $145k are $4117 which will take a big bite out of monthly rental income.