'First Analysis-4plex in Minneapolis

[Kayla Joachim]

You can read more about my investment partner and I on the new member forum, 'New Investor from Minneapolis'. Suffice to say, we are two 23 year olds looking to purchase investment property. We found a property listed on zillow, for sale by owner. Built in 2002, it is a fully rented four plex (one unit is month-to-month so we would move in there).

Current asking price: $495,000 (though originally listed at 474k, he upped the price after 16 days)
Days on Zillow Market: Over 100
Reason for Selling: To either purchase a SFH for himself and his GF or buy a commercial property, possibly storage units

Rents: 4,400 monthly (Owner said 2 units could be easily increased by $50 to $75 each)

Expenses (annual)
Property Taxes (assessed 2014): 7,754
Insurance: 3,000 (guess)
Maintenance & Repairs: 4,200 (guess)
Utilities: 4,500 (average for last 18 months from water company, owner currently pays water/sewer/trash but there are separate water meters so we would look into passing this to the tenants as the leases expire)
Advertising: $150 (only advertising is for new tenants when leases expire)
Administrative/Misc Costs: $150
Mortgage Insurance: $6,501 (from mortgage broker at 490k loan level)
Snow Removal: $1,500 (as acountants, our busy season is during the winter and we don't have the time or patience to deal with this, there is a sidewalk + steps + driveway and back parking area to be plowed)
Lawn Care: $150 (supplies fund, we will mow it ourself, first year expense of a lawnmower not included)
Mortgage: 26,579 (FHA, 3.5% down, 3.75%)

At 495k
Annual cash flow: $-1,684
CoC: -9.72%
NOI: 24,895
Total ROI: 40.89%

At 450k (keeping mortgage insurance at 490k loan level b/c I don't have other numbers)
Annual cash flow: 762
CoC: 4.84%
NOI: 24,895
Total ROI: 55.54%

As it stands, my numbers are telling me this deal will not work, given the $100/mo/unit minimum standard most people are looking for here.

This is the first deal that I have really looked at though as seriously buying, so I would love other people's opinions on my analysis. What have I missed? What have I under or over estimated for?