Determine ARV without Comps

[Sam Erickson]

Hi Everyone,

So I'm looking at a property to rehab but I'm having a hard time determining ARV. The property is located in a pocket of residential that is boxed in by 4 major roads. There are probably only a couple hundred houses within this area. My problem when I run comps nothing comes up. I went back 3 years and only 4 houses have sold in that time and one is currently pending.

The area is very nice which also adds to the difficulty of determining ARV. Of the 4 houses that sold 2 are twice the size of the one I'm looking at. The number I need for ARV is $220,000 for the deal to make sense.

Subject House: 3 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath    1,700 Sq Ft.

Below are the sales numbers for the comps

House #1: $424,900        DOM: 112        3 Bed, 3 Bath 3,532 Sq Ft.        

House #2: $381,000        DOM: 105         3 Bed, 3 Bath 3,500 Sq Ft.

House #3: $280,000        DOM: 107        3 Bed, 2 Full 2 Half Bath, 2,250

House #4: $222,000        DOM: 35          3 Bed, 2 Bath,  1,500 Sq Ft.

Pending House: $229,900  DOM: 14       3 Bed, 1 1/2 Bath, 1,644 Sq Ft.

The Pending House of coarse is Pending so the $229 is the list price, won't know sale price till is closes.

Do these numbers look promising?  Any insight would be great.

Thanks,

Sam