Unique Deal? VA assumable Loan, 2.5%

[Kile Baker]

Greetings,

First possible investment opportunity: Just looking for some wisdom here as this is a little out of my expertise on how to calculate. Looking to see if this might cashflow, or any wisdom from someone who may know the area to see if holding for an extended period of time (10 years) would be a good investment. I'll try to bullet point the details for simplicity. 

1. I may have the opportunity to assume someone's VA loan, @ 2.5%. He owes about $225,000, and the house is on the market for $275,000. It's newer, built in 2020 and doesn't seem to have any needs as it has only been lived in for a few years.

2. It's in Rosharon, Texas and property taxes seem high at 3.19%

3. He's probably asking for about $30-$40K as a buy out, may be negotiable. May have just a little equity at the start.

4. HOA $850/year

5. Fees of sale are: $375 (resale certificate) $225 (transfer) $850 (cap fee)

6. Property manager in the are seems to think it would go for $2,150-$2,300 / month and 7-8% management fee.

7. I may have someone for the down payment, or take out a portion of HELOC as a down payment, as I have quite a bit of equity on my home.

I've tried doing the calculations and have come up with (roughly), a property that doesn't cashflow based on my calculations (which could be wrong)

Not cashflowing? Assuming $2,150 for rent

$933 (mortgage, from zillow & his statement) + $96 (Home owners insurance) + $592 (property taxes) + $86 (repairs, 5%) + $129 (vacancy, 6%) + $150 (Capex, 7%) + $172 (property management, 8%) + $71 (HOA) = $2,229. Slightly negative cashflow of -$79. This also doesn't take into account if I pay monthly for taking out a HELOC if I can't find help with the down payment.

This is a pass right? Or did I do something wrong in the calculations?