[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

[Ashley Glinka]

Finally took the leap of faith once I realized I was a victim of analysis paralysis! Settled on our first duplex about 8 weeks after I first heard this term.  It really lit a fire in me!  This is what we are working with.  Our plan is to brrrr this property and hold on to it for the long term.  Trying to get through this first deal but we have some big goals ahead of us.  I'd love to hear feedback from experienced investors on what this deal looks like to you-what looks great, what is concerning? 

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*This link comes directly from our calculators, based on information input by the member who posted.

[Tim Herman]

@Ashley Glinka a vacancy factor of 4% is your tenant staying an average of 25 months. How long to get back to 4% if it takes you 3 months to get the tenants evicted:75 months. Banks usually underwrite at 5%. Have you run a capex and repair budget. Here would be a simple repair budget. Cost to repaint between tenants+cost of cleaning+cost of repairs. Assume $1500 for painting+$300 for cleaning +2 repairs @$150 each=$2100/25 months=$84 per month for a repair budget.  You would do a capex similar. Take all the major components and estimate how much to save per month. An example of 1 item in a capex budget. Assume a roof costs $7500. Lifespan of 25 years. $7500/25 years lifespan/12 months in a year=$25 per month. What if you have a 15 year old roof. Your new effective lifespan is 10 years. $7500/10 years/12 months in a year=$62.50 per month for 1 item. On my rough estimates I use 10% for capex.  Refi in 6 months I would use 8% as the interest rate. Feds are looking to raise the prime 1/2 to 3/4% at the November meeting. Mortgage rates usually follow. You are not including any property management. Always good to include. Even making changes I think it will be positive cash flow.