Evaluating Alternate Strategies Mid-Deal

Evaluating Alternate Strategies Mid-Deal

Investor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2019 · 104 posts · 66 votes

I purchased a property about three months ago as a flx-and-flip, and I have about three months remaining on the project. It's a full gut and rehab. My long-term goal is to buy and hold rentals. However, I know the infinite BRRRR is uncommon (especially in markets like Phoenix, where my property is), so I know I'll probably have to leave cash in each deal. That's the reason for the fix-and-flip(s), buying those in between rentals to raise additional cash so that I can leave cash in a rental without running out (preventing me from continuing on to the next, or depleting my cushion).

My plan with this property was to net about $40k after absolutely everything. With the softening of the market, I'm anticipating a lower ARV was when I originally analyzed this property, and now I'm thinking it's realistic that I'll net $10k-$15k. That's much lower than what I'm really wanting from this deal, so now I'm considering alternate strategies. Namely, keeping it as a rental for a couple of years for the market go rebound, then selling for what I wanted (or, just keeping it as if I had intended to hold it as a rental).

In doing so, I'm looking at the pros of each. If I keep with my original plan and sell it once completed:

- I get all of my original cash back out, plus about $10k in profit. In this scenario, I have the most cash available for the next deal.

If I hold onto it:

- Best case, I can cash-out refinance it at 75% LTV and get back a little less than half my cash. That would still allow me to move forward with another deal, but with far more restrictions on what I can do because I have less cash.

- When I do sell it, the profits are LTCG instead of ordinary income.

- There are some exterior repairs that need to be done on the property before selling, but if I'm keeping it as a rental, some of these could be deferred (these items could be worked on and completed while I have a tenant in the property). However, not completing these things might affect my refinance appraisal.

- If I were in the market to buy a rental property on purpose, this would be a property that I'd want. It's a growing area, and rents are strong (and likely to remain that way).

- Since this is a full gut and rebuild, I shouldn't have much in the way of cap-ex, once completed, for quite some time.

So my questions are as follows:

- Are there pros (or cons) in the above strategies that I'm not considering that might help me make my decision? If I could somehow find a magical 85%+ LTV cash-out refinance on a rental property, that would pretty much solidify the decision for me, but I don't see that being realistic (also, with the associated monthly payment, it could cash-flow negative.. fine by me, but that would make it difficult to qualify).

- Are there other strategies that I should consider? This property would not make for a good STR, so I'm intentionally not considering that.

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Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2012 · 640 posts · 457 votes
4y

I think your analysis about keeping it as a LTR is the best option. 3 months is a rather long time in this current climate of continued interest rate hikes, coupled with downward pressure on sale prices. Your $10-$15k estimated profit could be $0 or even negative in 3-6 months. 

I would try do to a cash out refi (ASAP after completion, before rates go up again), and then set it up for success as a LTR. Maybe the market goes up in 12-24 months, maybe not...I think probably not, so plan for a longer term rental hold. 

The only other strategy you didn't mention is to live in the home yourself, thereby cutting your other current housing expenses. Then you would rent it by the room for higher cash flow than a typical non-owner occupied LTR.

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  • Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2012 · 640 posts · 457 votes
    4y

    I think your analysis about keeping it as a LTR is the best option. 3 months is a rather long time in this current climate of continued interest rate hikes, coupled with downward pressure on sale prices. Your $10-$15k estimated profit could be $0 or even negative in 3-6 months. 

    I would try do to a cash out refi (ASAP after completion, before rates go up again), and then set it up for success as a LTR. Maybe the market goes up in 12-24 months, maybe not...I think probably not, so plan for a longer term rental hold. 

    The only other strategy you didn't mention is to live in the home yourself, thereby cutting your other current housing expenses. Then you would rent it by the room for higher cash flow than a typical non-owner occupied LTR.

  • Investor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2019 · 104 posts · 66 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Ryan Swan:

    I think your analysis about keeping it as a LTR is the best option. 3 months is a rather long time in this current climate of continued interest rate hikes, coupled with downward pressure on sale prices. Your $10-$15k estimated profit could be $0 or even negative in 3-6 months. 

    I would try do to a cash out refi (ASAP after completion, before rates go up again), and then set it up for success as a LTR. Maybe the market goes up in 12-24 months, maybe not...I think probably not, so plan for a longer term rental hold. 

    The only other strategy you didn't mention is to live in the home yourself, thereby cutting your other current housing expenses. Then you would rent it by the room for higher cash flow than a typical non-owner occupied LTR.


    One of the reasons the LTR option is appealing to me is because, 1) That's my long-term goal anyway (once I raise more cash so that I can comfortably leave it in a property), and 2) If I were in the market to buy a rental on purpose, I would love this particular property. So I'm not concerned about the short-term value (12-24 months) if I go this route, because it'll cash-flow anyway, and I can take the appreciation on the back-end in 5-10 years.

    You're right that values could be depressed even further by the time this property is completed at the end of the year. Phoenix is a pretty strong market, so they could flatten, or even recover somewhat in that time frame (who knows?). The nice thing is that I don't have to make that decision now, I can see what the market looks like in three months and decide then.

    I hadn't considered a "house hack", that's an interesting idea. I have a couple of challenges with that idea:

    - I would love that, as I had considered it as a strategy going forward as well (once I can improve my DTI, see below). I own my current house, and would like to rent it out. But I'm currently DIYing some renovations here, and if I accelerate that with my construction crew, I'm about a 6-12 months from having those completed and making my property rentable. So it's not an immediately-available option.

    - The investment property is in the west valley.. I live in Tempe, and my life (including my son's school) is here, so that'd be a long daily trek for me.

    - The benefit of living in it vs. renting it out would be the primary residence loan, which means personally qualifying. With my DTI (obviously, a common issue with investors) probably doesn't allow that. If I get to live in one house and rent the other, and the investment property has a DSCR loan regardless, I'd rather stay where I'm at. My current residence is bigger, and better located for my life. In other words, it probably doesn't benefit me to swap houses.

    But I like and appreciate that you introduced a strategy I hadn't considered!
  • Grant SchroederPro Member
    Lender · OR ID AZ CA WA CO NV TN MT · Member since 2018 · 599 posts · 312 votes
    4y

    @Nick Coons why not do 85% LTV cash out to recoup more of your capital for your next deal?

  • Investor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2019 · 104 posts · 66 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Grant Schroeder:

    @Nick Coons why not do 85% LTV cash out to recoup more of your capital for your next deal?


    I would love to! Can you tell me where I might find such a unicorn loan?

  • Grant SchroederPro Member
    Lender · OR ID AZ CA WA CO NV TN MT · Member since 2018 · 599 posts · 312 votes
    4y

    @Nick Coons we have this at Academy Mortgage actually 

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