First time duplex investment - good or bad?

[Jason Sung]

Hi all, 

I am a new real estate investor. I found a duplex and want to see if the deal is good or not. Would appreciate any feedback. 

Normally, for a duplex, I would house hack as experienced investors recommend. But I recently bought a SFH and moved to the house. After the purchase, there is already increase of appraisal value of my own residential property. So, If I sell my primary home, there will be capital gain tax (I think ~20%). So, I would buy the duplex and rental it for a couple of years until I sell my primary home.

This duplex is listed 500K. It looks like the home price increased by 100K for the past one year. I plan to put an offer of 525K.

Expected income: Total rental estimate is ~ 3000 per month. 

Cost estimate: 3700 (consisting of mortgage (P&I), tax, insurance, 5% vacancy, 5% repair, 5% capEx, $100 property management). There is a potential to increase rent, based on rental analysis from Rentometer. 

Financing: conventional loan with interest rate 5.3% for 30 years with 20% down payment. (the rate is guess from the rate I found online today. Still waiting for the rate from a lender)

So, from the first month, there will be -$700 cash flow. For the 1st month mortgage, principal is ~$500. The rest is interest. 

This does not seem like a good investment to me. However, I plan to move to one of the duplex unit after 2 years, after selling the current primary resident home. I found you are exempted from capital gain tax if you sell it after 2 years of living. 

Investment perspective, does this make sense? I mean, buying a property with negative cash flow?