To Buy or Not to Buy?

[Neil Seldomridge]

Hi all, I have done two deals now (a live-in-flip and a more turnkey duplex) and am looking to take down my first BRRR. My all-in budget is about 150k cash (HELOC) and I found a property that looks pretty good, but the sellers are not budging on price.

It's a 3 bed/1 Bath 1500 sq ft built in 1945.  The house is in pretty good shape structurally, decent fenced backyard, hardwood floor throughout, in a B- / C+ area.  Upon a walkthrough the major things that stood out to me are: roof is near the end of its life, the ac unit, water heater, and a section of cast iron main sewer line (easily accessible overhead in basement) all need to be replaced.  The bathroom will also need to be gutted and redone.  The wiring has been updated, the furnace is relatively new, the kitchen is in good shape, the bedrooms just need paint.  There is also a bonus finished attic room that could be an office or play room and the basement has a "bedroom" with windows too small for egress, but they are above ground and could theoretically be enlarged to make it a legit 4th bedroom.

House is in Roanoke Virginia and is listed for $110k. Comps in the neighborhood seem to be about $100 / sq ft, so I'm thinking $145k is a good number for ARV, so 70% rule would put purchase + rehab at 115k. My thoughts for purchase & rehab are below:
- 85k purchase

- 25k rehab (10k roof, 5k ac, 4k bathroom, 1k water heater, 2k sewer line, 3k paint)

The issue is sellers are stuck on price - they declined my offer and supposedly (per the realtor) have an offer for 105k that they are not taking.  I know it doesn't make sense at that price point, but I'm hoping for advice on if I am thinking about this right / if things were different, would this be worth going to 90k or 95k?  

To play devil's advocate, I know I'll probably lose money on my first deal and if I can get a house for 10k after a refinance, that doesn't seem too bad.

Appreciate any thoughts!