Need Help Underwriting A Property!

[Rachel Hettler]

Hello,

I am working to find my first rental property, and on the surface the deal I'm looking at seems like it has very good long term appreciation potential but I'm not sure how to adjust the current numbers and make an offer the will also be reasonable for the short term.

- Single-family 2/1 @ 820 sf in St Petersburg, FL. Priced at $219,000. Comps are $170-230k. Difficult to be exact because of high appreciation over the past year, which is now cooling in this neighborhood, but new construction and rehabbing is just beginning in this neighborhood, so it seems most likely prices will plateau or soften and then resume significant appreciation as the area is developed.

- FSBO - owner offering financing: 20-30 years at prime +2% and 15% down - owner financing appeals because I don't have W2 income so I won't be able to get a conventional loan, though perhaps could get a debt to service loan since it is a rental property

- Renter in the property, owner says they are a great tenant, currently paying $1500/month, tenant covers all utilities.

- According to owner, in very good condition, no major repairs, newer roof and AC, recently painted. However I can see finishes are very basic, and somewhat dated and worn, so it would need thorough cosmetic improvements to get top value if selling or in order to increase rent.

The appreciation opportunity makes this seem like a good idea, but getting top dollar probably means waiting to sell at least 1-2 years for the neighborhood to continue improving. I think there is potential for around 50% appreciation (to around $325k) within the next 1-3 years for this property, if it was fully updated (which would probably mean putting in 50-60k.) In the meantime, the price, terms and current rent would mean losing money each month. My calculations are below - am I considering the right factors. Which of those (price, terms, rent, other) should I try to adjust and by how much? Or is this just not a good deal?

$219,000 sale price

+ $5,000 closing costs (less than usual since FSBO)

+$0 immediate repairs

-$32,850 down at 15%

----

$1500 monthly rental income

-$1320 monthly premium & interest at 7.5% (roughly prime plus 2%)

-$300 estimated monthly taxes & insurance,

- $150 property management at 10%

-$325 repairs, maintenance & reserve at 25%

= - $495 loss/month

Thanks so much!