City vs Big Company, Head Tax: Decline of Seattle Housing Market?

[Jason Chung]

For the experts in the industry, what are your thoughts on the growth of Seattle real estate with the conflict between city vs. big companies and having to pay a head tax? ref. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-considers-relocating-some-employees-outside-of-seattle/

My thoughts are that Seattle will stagnate and there are better opportunities outside of the Seattle area for investment type opportunities.

[Trevor Ramos]

@Jason Chung

Let me preface everything by saying I am definitely not an expert on commercial real estate or the impacts that has on residential property values, and am completely speculating everything I say based on context clues and general public information.

Re: Amazon moving employees. It’s been well known for 2-3 years that they are planning on taking over the Bellevue Expedia building so if they are looking to move employees to avoid head tax imposed by the City of Seattle, there’s their loophole. However that building can only really fit 4500 employees.

REI planned on opening their new campus in Bellevue Spring District in 2020, but COVID took a huge toll on REI's business and they are now forced to give up some of their campus, which Facebook is supposed to buy or lease (I believe)

Microsoft has been planning a new $5+ billion campus but recently announced that they are going to allow all of their employees continue flexible work from home options indefinitely, so they probably will have unused office buildings up for grabs as well as their existing campus... who knows what will happen there.

Expansion will continue on the east side for big businesses that want to take advantage of the tech talent both north and south of I-90 (especially now that people are moving out to the suburbs). But overall I highly doubt this will cause any stagnation in the Seattle side. It will be easier for the big businesses to buy their way around the political system every 4 years than to up and move company headquarters to avoid some tax