Is Dubai the next Miami??

[Aleem Jinah]

Heres my take on the Dubai vs. Miami property market!

In Dubai

Current demand is 40,000- 50,000 residential units per year.

69,000 are to be delivered by the end of the year (2007).

69,000- 50,000 demand of units, leaves an oversupply of 19,000 units.


2008

139,000 units are to be delivered!

Lets say only half are actually completed in time.

139,000 *.50=

69,500 units delivered
-
50,000 units demand

= 19,500 extra units.

----
So in two years this leaves an extra 38,500 units on the market by the end of year 2008.

This doest not factor in the other 69,500 which I have excluded due to possible building delays.


Imagine in MIAMI currently there are 20,000 extra condos on the market for sale. Plus another 20,000 to be built, and there market is already crashing with an expected 30% decline..

Miami Dade Population (Metro): 5.4 Million people

VS.

Dubai Population (Metro): 1.49 Million people

So in Dubai in two years if you factor in building delays, you will have 30-40,000 extra units on hand+ another 69, 500 units to be handed over after some point... Factor in a strong population growth rate, yet STILL in 2009-2010 there will be another extra 15,000-20,000 units for sale...


So by 2010 you could possibly have an accumulated total of roughly 50,000 - 60,000 extra supply of residential units!


Looks like over building to me! But for those who felt they missed out on the Dubai boom, in a year or so it might be a good time to re asses and pick up bargains??

Let me know your thoughts