Why Today's Housing Market Won't Turn into 2008's

[Neil Narayan]

Those with an eye on recent history can't be blamed for thinking current market conditions are nearing their endgame, with rapid price appreciation and fierce competition for homes eerily reminiscent of the late stages of the mid-2000s housing boom. March marked the largest one-month increase ever recorded in the more than 25-year history of the Zillow Home Value Index — surpassing even the housing run-up preceding the Great Recession — and the 10.6% rise from March 2020 was the largest annual increase in 15 years.

But that view ignores the fact that the housing market doesn't operate in a vacuum, and is driven by the interactions of a number of relatively simple but critically important fundamentals — including supply and demand, financial conditions and technological advancement. And the state of those fundamentals in 2021 is ultimately far healthier, and that health far more likely to be sustainable over the longer-term, than the out-of-whack fundamentals from a generation ago.

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