The Austin area real estate market in June 2020 showed little regard overall for the COVID-19 situation locally. According to the Austin Board of REALTORS (ABoR), home sales were up by 9.3% in the metro area compared to June 2019. Median prices held firm over that same period, with Austin rising 3% to $407,000 and the MSA up 4% to $340,000. However, Austin saw a 26% decrease in active listings and a 5% decline in new listings. The market went into the pandemic in an extreme seller’s market with incredibly low listing inventory. Current circumstances have only tightened inventory further, with Austin dropping to 1.6 months and the MSA going to 1.8 months (balanced market is ~6 months of inventory).

So far, then, the Austin area market is maintaining its familiar overall pattern of extreme low inventory, high buyer demand, and rising home prices. Moreover, one of the best leading indicators of market activity, pending sales, suggest that July 2020 will produce strong sales numbers. Pending sales in Austin were up 21% last month compared to June 2019. The MSA was up at 33%. This is good news for the market across the region. However, we’re still in uncharted territory as Texas and the Austin area experience a continued rise in COVID-19 cases that could cause additional economic restrictions that further pressure the area’s already cripplingly low housing inventory.

James Gaines, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at TAMU, said the following:

“There are plenty of unknowns in the months ahead, but June home sales across the MSA being up 9.3% YoY was tremendous when considering the strength of 2019. And while home sales declined throughout the Austin-MSA during the first six months of 2020, we are still on track for a strong year. Extremely low inventory is one of the factors that affects overall sales dollar volume while simultaneously creating a very competitive and tight market. Home builders aren’t building quite as many new homes and sellers were hesitant to list their home during shelter in place orders. Even if we end up with a 3 to 4% decline in sales in 2020, that would still be a strong year for the region.”

Here are basic stats on residential sales for June 2020 for the City of Austin and the greater Austin area:

I have been tracking the local market on a more fine-grained time scale:

As of July 4th, 2.8 million Texans have filed for unemployment relief since mid-March. In June, state sales tax revenue was down 6.5% from the same time in 2019 (source). Texas' unemployment rate was 13% in May 2020, up from 3.4% in the previous May. The jobless rate in the Austin-Round Rock metro was 11.4% in May 2020 compared to 2.4% a year earlier:

This chart of passenger traffic at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport drives home rapidly and severely the Austin area economy changed:

It is looking more and more likely that Tesla will break ground this year on its newest 4-5 million square foot “Gigafactory” at site in SE Austin to manufacture it’s new Cybertruck and Model Y. The Del Valle Independent School District just approved the incentive agreement Tesla was seeking, and Travis County officials are set to vote on an additional package July 14th. It’s not a done deal yet, however, as Tulsa, OK is aggressively courting the automaker as well. At stake are roughly 5,000 jobs directly from the factory with average annual salaries around $47,000. There would also be potential thousands of additional jobs and millions in additional commercial and residential development in the area.