November 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

[Bryan Noth]

November 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

November 2022 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight decrease in median sales price from the preceding month and no change from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a change in month to month median sale price from $555,000 to $530,000 a month to month decrease of $25,000 and a 1% decrease from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median sale price from $474,990 to $467,995 a month to month decrease of $6,995 and no change from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory for the MSA saw a slight decrease in month to month inventory from 3.2 months in October to 3.1 months for November, and a 2.3 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin saw a slight increase month to month inventory from 2.8 months in October to 2.6 months for November, and a 1.9 months increase over the preceding year.

Withdrawn and expired listings continue to remain high. Total volume was down from a yearly apex in October at 1,877. November showed 1,752 listings were withdrawn or expired for the month but this amounted to 86% of the total closed sales of 2,026 as reported by ABOR during that same timeframe. This was a 2% increase in the withdrawn to closed sales ratio seen in October.

The Federal Reserve did increase interest rates in November as well as in December which most likely will keep downward pressure on prices going forward. And they have already indicated additional rate increases are likely coming in early 2023. There is little doubt another increase will come as they have stuck to prior increase committments 5 months running now.

The relatively low volume of new listings and high volume of withdrawn listings tells us a lot. Sellers do not have to sell. The market is feeling the heavy hand of the Fed’s rate hikes but the vast majority of mortgages in place are not forcing owners to liquidate en mass. As long as rates increase I suspect prices will be pushed down, but I do not expect a crash will result from this alone.

December’s stats will not be compiled until mid January so this is the last update within the 2022 calendar year. I wish everyone reading here good luck with your ventures moving into the New Year.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

[Marian Smith]

That may very well be the case.  Crashes, at least in stocks, tend to be panic driven.  The fed targeting housing costs has indeed halted appreciation nationwide and housing prices are likely to plateau or drift down even in markets with low supply and a growing job base.  Not seeing widespread panic or distressed selling in Austin's future.  Rents may go down but a lot of landlords with long term tenants are renting below market anyway.  New entrants probably didn't cashflow from the get go, but if they can put 25% down in the Austin market they likely have a few options going forward...we are not Memphis.