June 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

[Bryan Noth]

June 2022 Housing Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

June 2022 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight increase in median sales price from the preceding month and a 7% increase from the preceding year for the entire Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area.

The City of Austin saw a change in median home price from $667,000 to $615,000, a month to month decrease of $52,000 and a 7% increase from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock MSA saw a change in median home price from $550,000 to $537,475 a month to month decrease of $12,525 and a 13% increase from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory has begun to slowly climb and now shows 2.1 months for the entire MSA which is 1.5 months increase over the preceding year. The City of Austin also remained at slightly lower inventory low levels, 1.8 months, which is 1.1 months increase over the preceding year. The strong relative increase again this month in housing inventory comes from a 19% increase in new listings (new homes hitting the market), a 217% increase in active listings (current homes available on market),and a 31% decrease in pending sales. 

The Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) continued increase of interest rates is certainly being felt with home sales. This trend is also likely to persist as the most recent CPI data is showing inflation at 9.1%. This is the largest year over year increase in 40 years going back to 1981. (Article and Data table linked below)

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly indicated a strong commitment to get inflation under control and aims to do that with further interest rate hikes. Rates have doubled within a year and that adversely affects buyer sentiment but also buyer capability. Sadly this is coupled with a second issue which is housing inventory. At both a local and national level housing inventory is low. Even with 200% increase in year over year numbers Austin is still strongly in a seller’s market. The cooling effects are being felt as we return to a more balanced market but make no mistake, the inherit need is there.  

I have no crystal ball, but I expect at some point inflation will subside and interest rates will come down. I suspect when that time comes the floodgates will open for refinances and right along with that will be home purchases. The major difference there is refinances do not have to compete against other investors who are refinancing. The following is not investment advice, just my thoughts. I think there is opportunity ahead. Right now interest rates are a major obstacle for buyers, not competition from other buyers or investors.  To use a famous adage from an investing sage:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

Article Links:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/consumer-prices-up-9-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2022-largest-increase-in-40-years.htm

[Bryan Noth]

@Lucia Rushton I saw that report as well, Bloomberg reported on Rent.com’s findings but I really would like to see the data subsets they pulled from.  Their numbers are quite misaligned for the city of Austin when I pull data and run comps. 

Referenced Articles linked here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...
https://www.rent.com/research/...