Estimate values post-HCAD craziness this year? ISO crystal ball!

[PG Henderford]

I'm a relatively new, small-time investor (a duplex "here", vacant acreage "there") who has lurked and learned here forever without posting...until now.  Target "niche" is small multifamily properties in very particular areas inside the Loop. Properties are buy and hold investments. I have a few and want a few more, sensing slight softening in prices.

Okay: the property taxes on my homestead (14 years in residence) increased *dramatically* this year. We protested, etc., but the plain fact is this year was "special" for all who live in the world according to Harris County Appraisal District. Sales comps or no, I still don't get the magic formula that appraised my home's value some 30% higher. Trying to crunch numbers on a new acquisition or decide what amount to increase rent? Make sure you have figures for the most recent tax year or get your feelings hurt (and your math wrong).

So...how sustainable is this new property-value "pattern"? The price of a barrel of oil is $[fill in the blank, but make it a low number]. Houston falls from no. 1 to no. 30 rank on XYZ Commercial Real Estate Market List. Folk are still moving to Houston. Residential rents are still strong. This Headline. That Headline. I'm oversimplifying to highlight the point of my almost-but-not-quite-rhetorical question: assuming no significant new development in the neighborhood, what can a small-time landlord expect come next tax year?

Question or rant?  I don't know. Having fun, though.

Phyllis